Global warming will breach 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, but countries must urgently cut emissions to minimize the overshoot and return to the internationally agreed threshold by the end of this century. This recommendation is highlighted in the Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return, which was published on Wednesday by the UN Environment Programme. The document outlines a lowest possible overshoot scenario where peak warming by roughly mid-century is limited to 1.7 to 1.8°C. To achieve this, nations must slash emissions by 18 per cent by the end of the decade, 45 per cent by 2035, and 69 per cent five years later, compared with 2025 levels. UN Secretary-General António Guterres stressed in a message accompanying the publication that overshoot is not surrender, noting that the world can still keep it as small and as short as possible.
The Cost of Inaction and Current Projections
UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen warned about the steep cost of inaction, noting that every additional fraction of a degree and additional year of warming above 1.5°C increases climate impacts and risks like deadly floods, heatwaves, and wildfires. If current policies continue, warming could reach 2.8°C within this century and increase thereafter. Under the Paris Agreement, nations must submit national climate action plans, known as NDCs. Even if all current plans are delivered, warming will be limited to 2.6°C. These outcomes are worse than previous projections due to the United States withdrawing from the climate deal and revised estimates of historical emissions, while new NDCs submitted since the last report have hardly made a difference.
The Road to COP31 and Mitigation Targets
Returning to or below the 1.5 threshold remains possible, especially as evidence shows climate policies have successfully reduced emissions in many places. The report calls for accelerating goals from the first-ever Global Stocktake held from 2021 to 2023. The second Global Stocktake begins next month at the UN COP31 climate conference in Antalya, Türkiye. This upcoming summit can build on progress by reaffirming mitigation action areas and extending quantified goals to 2035 and 2040. Extending the goal on transitioning from fossil fuels requires cutting the share of coal, oil, and gas in total energy supply by at least 55, 15, and five per cent respectively by 2035, relative to 2025 figures. By 2040, reductions must reach at least 75, 30, and 35 per cent.
Source: Cosmo News Desk
