The Emissions Gap Report 2026 urges deep cuts as global warming exceeds 1.5°C, emphasizing that nations must pull out all the stops to minimize the overshoot and return to the internationally agreed threshold by the end of this century. Published on Wednesday by the UN Environment Programme, the document outlines a lowest possible overshoot scenario where peak warming around mid-century is restricted to 1.7 to 1.8°C. Reaching this goal demands slashing emissions by 18 per cent by the end of the decade, 45 per cent by 2035, and 69 per cent five years later, when compared to 2025 levels. UN Secretary-General António Guterres stressed that overshoot is not surrender and that the planet can still bring temperatures back down. Meanwhile, UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen warned about the mounting costs of inaction, noting that every additional fraction of a degree increases climate impacts like deadly floods, heatwaves, and wildfires.
Current Climate Policies and Worsening Projections
Without stronger action, current policies could drive global warming to 2.8°C within the century and increase further thereafter. Even if all national climate action plans, or NDCs, are delivered under the 2015 Paris Agreement, warming will only be limited to 2.6°C. These outcomes are worse than previous projections due to the United States withdrawing from the climate deal and revised estimates of historical emissions, while new NDCs submitted recently have hardly made a difference. Despite these setbacks, the report highlights that opportunities to step up action have grown since the Paris Agreement, supported by a boom in renewable energy, slower growth in fossil fuel supply, and effective climate policies. The upcoming second Global Stocktake at the UN COP31 climate conference in Antalya, Türkiye, provides a key opportunity to reaffirm priority mitigation action areas and extend quantified goals to 2035 and 2040.
Fossil Fuel Transition Benchmarks
To stay aligned with the lowest overshoot scenario, the report sets out strict benchmarks for transitioning away from fossil fuels. This requires reducing the share of coal, oil, and gas in the total energy supply by at least 55, 15, and five per cent respectively by 2035, relative to 2025 figures. By 2040, these reductions must reach at least 75, 30, and 35 per cent. The report calls for accelerating goals from the first-ever Global Stocktake held between 2021 and 2023, though progress across most areas remains insufficient. As governments prepare for the November COP31 summit in Türkiye, and upcoming biodiversity discussions in Yerevan, Armenia, extreme weather events like record-breaking heat, devastating floods, and an El Niño climate pattern make global action increasingly urgent.
Source: Cosmo News Desk
